COP30 wrap: Action, Not Just Ambition needed from SA Business

As COP30 convenes in Belem, Brazil, the global business community faces outcomes that will be important for years, if not decades to come.

COP30 in Belem, Brazil, concluded with a powerful message for the global economy, and especially for South African businesses operating within an energy and climate-sensitive landscape: the time for incremental change is over. The conference underscored that the pace of change in the real economy has not been matched by the pace of progress seen in COP negotiating rooms. For African companies navigating a complex energy transition and severe resource constraints, the key outcomes of COP30—particularly around finance, NDCs, water security, and green industrialisation—provide a critical roadmap for future strategy.

Progress on NDCs: Moving the Needle, but Not Fast Enough

A core focus of COP30 was reviewing national climate commitments.

The data presented offered a mix of encouragement and sobering reality. The 2025 NDC Synthesis Report covered 86 NDCs submitted between January 1 2024, and November 9 2025, representing 69% of global carbon footprint..

By Day 8 of the conference, the submission tally grew to 99 countries, covering close to 77% of the total carbon footprint. The collective ambition embodied in these updated NDCs project a total global GHG emissions reduction of 12% by 2035, compared to 2019 levels. This trajectory marks a significant improvement from the projections before the adoption of the Paris Agreement, which suggested emissions would increase by between 20% and 48% by 2035.

However, this momentum remains insufficient to secure a safe future.

Even with the full implementation of current NDCs, global temperatures are still predicted to rise by 2.3–2.5^oC this century.

Reinforcing this gravity ten years after the Paris Agreement, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres stated that current NDCs, if fully implemented, would still lead to a 2^oC global temperature increase. African businesses must therefore plan for a hotter, more volatile world.

The Water Imperative: A Cornerstone of Climate Resilience

The Water Imperative: A Cornerstone of Climate Resilience For a water-scarce nation like South Africa, the elevation of water as a cornerstone of climate action at COP30 is highly pertinent. The High-Level Ministerial on Water and Climate Action, "Waters of Change," underscored water’s essential role in driving adaptation, resilience, and sustainable development. Furthermore, the Yearbook of Global Climate Action 2025 showed that the number of cities reporting adaptation tripled from 380 in 2017 to 910 in 2023. This focus on resilience led to concrete financial pledges that set a standard for regional cooperation.

Climate Finance: The Roadmap to US$1.3 Trillion Mobilisation

Climate finance was firmly in the spotlight at COP30, culminating in the launch of the “Baku to Belém Roadmap”. This roadmap explicitly calls on all public and private actors to work together to scale up financing for climate action in developing countries to at least US$1.3 trillion per year by 2035.

This target addresses vast financial gaps.

While total climate finance flows have increased substantially—tripling from US$700 billion in 2015 to US$1.9 trillion in 2023—crucial segments remain profoundly underfunded. Adaptation finance flows to developing countries stood at only US$28 billion in 2022, and MDB climate financing in 2025 (US$85 billion) lagged far behind the recognised annual climate finance goal of US$250–300 billion. Additionally, less than 10% of climate finance currently reaches subnational governments, a key gap for effective grassroots action.

The mobilisation of private capital is central to hitting the US$1.3 trillion per annum goal by 2035. The recently announced transaction, wherein Rand Merchant Bank (RMB) acted as the exclusive Transition Finance Advisor to FirstRand in securing a landmark $150 million (R2.6bn) facility from British International Investment - the UK’s development finance institution and impact investor, demonstrates international capital can be mobilised to achieve Africa’s climate goals.

Synergies: COP30 and B20/G20 Alignment

A crucial alignment for South African economic planning was the successful push for integrating climate action with economic strategy, particularly through the Belém Declaration on Global Green Industrialisation.

South Africa was listed among the 29 countries and organisations that formally endorsed this declaration.

This document provides a framework for countries, especially Emerging Markets and Developing Economies (EMDEs), to place green industrialisation at the centre of their economic strategy. This focus on driving technological innovation and establishing a sustainable model of economic growth aligns directly with South Africa’s Just Transition needs.

Further synergy with major economic groupings was seen in the launch of the Bioeconomy Challenge, specifically designed to operationalise G20 principles. This demonstrated a concerted effort to move environmental commitments into mainstream economic policy.

Key Takeaways and the Way Forward Post-COP30

COP30 succeeded in formalising key negotiation elements necessary for future action.

For Africa, the future path is clear: The African Union, International Organisation for Migration, and the COP30 Special Envoy for Africa issued a Joint Statement on Climate Mobility, calling for strengthened implementation in integrating human mobility into climate finance, accelerating adaptation, and strengthening solidarity on Just Transitions.

Looking ahead, Africa’s influence remains paramount, with the COP32 Presidency expected to take place on the African soil, with Ethiopia selected to host the conference.

The critical takeaway for African business is that the transition is no longer a peripheral concern but a central pillar of global trade and competitiveness, underpinned by billions in mobilisation pledges and concrete industrial frameworks.

By Tshepo Ntsane, RMB Sustainable Finance Transactor

ENDS