RMB and ACTSA Members Discuss Shifting Global Trade Dynamics

November 2025

RMB and ACTSA Members Discuss Shifting Global Trade Dynamics

RMB recently sponsored a breakfast event for members of the Association of Corporate Treasurers of Southern Africa (ACTSA), bringing together treasurers and financial experts to explore opportunities in an evolving global economic landscape. The event provided corporate treasurers with insights into the current low level of volatility in the Rand, adapting to shifting global trade patterns, and leveraging South Africa's improving economic fundamentals.

Analysis presented showed that the South African Rand is experiencing its narrowest trading range against the US Dollar since 1999, with volatility nearly half of historical levels. It also outlined an optimistic outlook for South Africa, highlighting several concurrent positive developments:

• Currency strength as the Rand is expected to remain resilient, with fair value estimated at R17.30 to the US Dollar.
• An S&P ratings upgrade is anticipated, with credit default swap spreads already trading at BB+ levels.
• The South African Reserve Bank's shift toward a 3% inflation target could lead to 75 basis points of cumulative rate cuts expected.
• South Africa's removal from the FATF grey is expected to help restore international confidence.

The discussion also revealed notable developments across African markets:

• Nigeria has seen improved currency stability following forex market reforms, with international investors returning to local bond markets.
• Zambia's successful fiscal reforms have strengthened the Kwacha, supported by reserves of approximately $4.8 billion.
• Mozambique continues to present liquidity challenges for corporates, though LNG investments offer long-term growth potential.

The event highlighted the acceleration of de-dollarisation and the rise of intra-African trade. With the African Continental Free Trade Agreement creating the world's largest free trade area spanning 54 countries and 1.3 billion people, treasurers are adapting to new currency requirements and trade corridors, with intra-African trade showing significant growth potential.

While South Africa faces ongoing challenges, the convergence of positive factors,  including political stability under the GNU, infrastructure improvements, and restored international confidence, creates a favourable environment and many opportunities for strategic treasury management.

Ends