Mozambique sees a trend towards economic recovery

MEDIA RELEASE

17 April 2023

FNB expects national economic growth of around 5-6% in 2023

The national economy will record a growth in its Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 5-6% in 2023. This is the outlook revealed by an FNB study recently in Maputo. FNB is a division of the First Rand Group.

GDP growth will be supported by acceleration in sectors such as agriculture (with a contribution of between 20-25%), logistics, and the continued recovery in hotels and tourism, and mining and fishing.

The Economic Outlook for 2023 - Africa and Mozambique study was conducted by the economic research team from Rand Merchant Bank (RMB), the corporate and investment banking arm of FirstRand Bank Limited. The presentation of this study was led by Daniel Kavishe, Africa Economist at RMB and Alfredo Mondlane, Senior Credit Manager at FNB.  

Growth can be expected in a markedly adverse economic environment characterised essentially by shocks arising from geopolitical, financial and political-military (Russia-Ukraine conflict) uncertainties.

The signals sent out by the economy indicate a trend towards economic recovery, following a period of deceleration caused by the fall in the prices of the main commodities on the international market and the COVID-19 pandemic. Meanwhile, the export of gas from the Rovuma basin (an offshore project) is expected to continue to grow in 2023, as is that of mineral coal, resulting from the Russia-Ukrainian conflict.

"The economic narrative for Mozambique is good and we expect growth in the range of 5-6%. When we compare this year's economic growth to that of previous years, a state of gradual recovery is visible," Alfredo Mondlane from FNB said.

Kavishe noted that, in terms of the African continent, inflation would see a significant reduction and would remain structurally above average in the long term. Kavishe also stressed that fiscal policy could remain limited in most markets, due in part to high financing costs.

”Detailed monitoring of the debt restructuring process is underway in countries such as Ghana and Zambia. For this year, forecasts point to currency volatility with a general trend towards the further depreciation of certain currencies,” Kavishe said.  

The event was attended by about 150 participants from different sectors of the economy and raised significant interest. The audience had the opportunity to learn more and enlighten themselves on issues related to the growth of the national and African economy, regionalisation, volatility of the inflation rate, growth sectors and others.

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Contact: 

Joandra Griesel l RMB l joandra.griesel@rmb.co.za