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As the global mining industry descends on Cape Town for the 2026 Mining Indaba, the commodity landscape is being rewritten by a force that has accelerated with unexpected ferocity: the explosive rise of AI-driven data centre demand.
While 2025 was widely hailed as a year of "US exceptionalism" in terms of GDP growth, a closer inspection reveals a more nuanced reality. This growth has been largely decoupled from traditional cycles, with an unexpected growth driver being the level of spend on the artificial intelligence ecosystem. Indeed, some analysts have argued that if one strips out the spend on data centres, the broader US economic picture appears mediocre—and in some sectors perhaps even recessionary.
For Africa, this represents the "wild card" of the decade.
We have long anticipated the transition from internal combustion engines to battery electric vehicles (BEVs) and the subsequent demand for electrification. But the sheer physical and energy intensity of the AI wave is a new frontier that challenges our existing supply-chain assumptions. The question is no longer just how we fund the green transition, but how we energise and build the next wave of AI-specific infrastructure.
The "All-In" Energy Mandate
The most pressing bottleneck for this digital revolution is power.
We are currently facing a "trillion-dollar question" regarding the source of energy for these massive builds. The reality is that the lead time for utility-scale power is simply too long to allow for ideological purity in energy selection.
We must acknowledge it's going to be pretty much all in. You can't really be picky about the data centre power supply because there is such a strong demand for power from any reliable source that can supply in the near term. Given the urgent, unprecedented level of demand, dedicated power generation will be built using a comprehensive mix of sources—from nuclear to renewables to fossil fuels—to ensure the necessary energy supply for these AI chips.
But beyond being power-intensive, the physical requirements of these AI-specific data centres will fundamentally reshape commodity markets.
Most of us only interact with the application layer of AI – the magical software that generates images and does our homework. Behind this, there is an extraordinary amount of physical infrastructure. Aside from the massive volumes of aluminium and copper required for racking and high-capacity cabling, these centres rely on minerals from across the periodic table. Most notably for South Africa, Platinum Group Metals (PGMs) have become the "hidden conductors" of the digital age, essential for the memory chips and CPUs that generate the units of thought that artificial intelligence applications consume to deliver the output we have come to demand.
The current market for many of the critical minerals for the AI revolution is already finely balanced from the existing sources of supply and demand.
Even in late 2025, we saw massive runs in commodity prices due to stockpiling and potential tariffs, indicating very little excess supply in the system. Add in the excess demand from data centres, and you have a recipe for significant price spikes.
Reclaiming the Definition of "Criticality"
Perhaps the most provocative question facing the 2026 Indaba is whether the term "Critical Minerals" is even appropriate for Africa.
For too long, "criticality" has been a label defined by the Global North, referring primarily to the minerals needed for their energy transition.
Africa must avoid "definition overload" and reclaim this narrative. A mineral should not be deemed critical simply because it appears on a list in Washington or Brussels. In the African context, a mineral is truly critical if it enables domestic development, fuels local industrialisation, and secures an inclusive future for the continent's people. We must ask: is Africa following a definition that is right for its own development, or is it merely subsidising the technological sovereignty of others?
By focusing on minerals that drive emerging African industrial powerhouses the continent can protect itself from the volatility of global commodity slumps.
A Shared Future
The intersection of AI, energy systems, and critical minerals is where the future of the global economy will be decided. We have tilted our focus toward critical minerals production for some time, and it is now time to double down.
Africa has a key role to play in supplying the global ecosystem for a better future. We don’t have to choose sides in a fragmented geopolitical landscape but rather have the opportunity to improve access to the raw materials that will underpin the next industrial evolution for all nations, so that global prosperity can be shared.
