ChenZhaoinconversationwithMoneyweb-BeyondtheWarandOilShock

 

Chen Zhao in conversation with Moneyweb - Beyond the War and Oil Shock

 

 

What was discussed

Chen Zhao in conversation with Moneyweb - Beyond the War and Oil Shock

Why commodities could be this decade’s biggest opportunity according to Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro, speaking at the RMB Think Summit with Moneyweb’s Jeremy Maggs. He shares his insights and outlook on commodities, China, oil and energy markets, and the risks facing AI investors.

Global investors are grappling with geopolitical tensions, oil market volatility and growing uncertainty around artificial intelligence (AI) valuations.

Speaking to Moneyweb’s Jeremy Maggs at the RMB Think Summit, Chen Zhao, chief global strategist at Alpine Macro, argued that investors should look beyond short-term market shocks and focus on the structural forces reshaping the global economy.

Zhao highlighted the long-term decline in oil demand driven by electric vehicle adoption, the growing importance of commodities in a reindustrialising world, and China’s evolving strategy of securing resource ownership across emerging markets.

He also warned that the current enthusiasm for AI may resemble past investment bubbles, posing significant risks for investors over the coming years.

Global investment strategy

Geopolitical conflict, commodity markets, AI and China’s global influence were among the key themes explored by Zhao.

While recent conflicts have driven concerns around oil supply and inflation, he believes investors may be overestimating the long-term impact on energy markets.

He argued that increased supply capacity and the continued growth of electric vehicles are creating a structural shift that could place downward pressure on oil demand over time.

For commodity-producing economies such as South Africa, Zhao sees a significant opportunity.

He described the current environment as part of a broader structural bull market in commodities, driven by global reindustrialisation, infrastructure investment and efforts by major economies to diversify supply chains away from China.

Zhao also explored China’s changing role in global trade, explaining how the country has shifted from exchanging manufactured goods for foreign capital to securing ownership of strategic resources across developing markets.

Looking ahead, he cautioned investors against becoming overly concentrated in AI-related investments, suggesting the sector may be exhibiting characteristics of previous market bubbles.

His message to investors is clear: focus on long-term structural trends rather than short-term geopolitical noise.