TOPIC
Investment consciousness: Shifting global macro winds and investment opportunities
High US inflation and weak Chinese growth have been the dominant global macro forces at play. The winds are shifting in the direction of a US recession and stronger Chinese growth. How will this shape investment opportunities in bonds, currencies, and commodities? After more than two decades of local and global financial and economic crises, we are attuned to market volatility. While conventional trading strategies are still relied on to navigate beta fluctuations, dynamic and innovative tactics are being employed to deliver consistent returns. Who better to interrogate the composition of a multi-strategy portfolio and the value that digital assets can provide than Harvinder Kalirai?
BIOGRAPHY
Harvinder is Alpine Macro’s Chief Global Fixed Income and Currency Strategist. Before joining Alpine Macro, he spent a decade with BCA Research, where he headed the firm’s Foreign Exchange Strategy service and Daily Insights between 2008 to 2018. Prior to BCA, Harvinder was Head of Currency Management at CIBC Global Asset Management. He has held various positions at State Street Global Markets, including Senior Macro Strategist (London), Head of Currency Research, Asia-Pacific (Sydney), and Senior FX Strategist (Boston). Harvinder began his career at the Bank of Canada in 1995 with an MA (Economics) and a BCom (Finance) from McGill University.
U.S. disinflation and Chinese reflation
Upside surprises in US economic data will keep the Fed hawkish for longer, which could delay the next downleg in Treasury yields and the dollar. A reflating Chinese economy is dollar bearish, but a hawkish Fed could act as a counterweight.
The separation principle
The Fed believes that price and financial stability are separate issues that can be dealt with by using separate policy tools. In our view, the banking troubles reflect the Fed’s tight monetary policy stance.
