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RMB – a division of FirstRand Bank Limited, is an Authorised Financial Services and Credit Provider NCRCP20.
Copyright © RMB 2026. All rights reserved.
Chapter 9
This section comprises our data tables, methodology and sources.
The Appendix tables provide additional information on each African economy’s macroeconomic and operating environments
Download tablesWe believe that the decision to invest is typically based on two key considerations: economic activity (specifically market size and growth) and the business environment. These factors form the basis of our methodology.
The structural DNA of the RMB Investment Attractiveness Rankings
Source: RMB Global MarketsThe economic activity variable aims to measure the economic performance of a country by assessing both the size and forecasted growth rates.
Market size: The market size of each economy is converted to US dollars to ensure that there is a common unit of measurement between all the countries. Rather than multiplying the respective sizes of each economy by their prevailing exchange rate, we standardised the variables by using the purchasing power parity method. This ensures that the unit measures the real rather than nominal value of an economy.
A score ranging from zero to ten is allocated to the market size variable, using the ranking method. Market sizes can differ significantly, especially after national accounts are rebased, resulting in several outliers. However, the ranking method isn’t affected by outliers and allows us to track the country rankings over time.
Growth: The real growth variable measures the average growth rate in the size of the economy over a five-year forecast period after adjusting for inflation. However, this unit can be quite volatile from year to year, subjecting the economic activity variable to large fluctuations. In order to overcome some of the challenges, we standardised the variable using the z-score method to identify exceptional GDP growth by some countries and extreme outliers that could distort our scoring process. We then used the rescaling method to widen the range of the observed growth rates lying within a small interval, as most of the rates were clustered around the mean.
The rescaled variables are multiplied by ten, and then allocated to the respective countries.
The overall economic activity score is then calculated by simply aggregating the two variables, with the best possible score being ten and the worst score being zero.
The operating environment scoring is arguably the most subjective. Our estimate uses the same four sources as in previous years: the World Bank’s Doing Business Report, the Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom, the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) Global Competitiveness Report and Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index, which are surveyed at different times of the year. We have used these four as they are highly regarded, have long histories, and contain a mix of hard and subjective data, but acknowledge that there are many other indices that could be used.
It could also be argued that some indices overlap or that certain indices should be given higher weights. However, we have found that most assessments of business operating conditions tend to be highly correlated: countries where corruption is high will also have prohibitive bureaucracy, less economic freedom and be perceived as being less competitive. Quite simply, it would probably not make much difference which indices are included or with which weights. Individual indices will have their own idiosyncrasies, but taking an equally weighted average of four indices helps smooth individual anomalies. To combine the indices, we adjusted each of their scales so that the best possible score is ten and the worst possible score is zero.
The composite investment attractiveness score is an equally weighted, linearly aggregated index, comprising the operating and economic activity variables. Equal weights are allocated to both variables. A linear aggregation method is used because all the composites use the same measurement unit. It therefore rewards variables based on their weights, unlike geometric aggregation, which rewards variables with high scores. This means that countries with low scores would benefit much more from the linear aggregation method than geometric aggregation.
While we believe our methodology is strong, it only provides a general overview of the attractiveness of each country rather than a specific rating that will be relevant to each company or each sector. We still highly recommend that individual companies look at the factors that are relevant to their particular businesses.
The alternative index rankings use a linear aggregation method, with unequal weights. Since the alternative ranking caters for investors who may place greater emphasis on the economic environment or the operating climate when making their investment decision, the weights are changed accordingly to reflect this. A weight of 60% is allocated to the emphasised variable, while a 40% weight is allocated to the other variable.
To emphasise the importance of political rights and civil liberties, we have incorporated the scorings of Freedom House’s Freedom in the World Index to our operating environment scoring by weighting them equally against the standardised scores of the existing global surveys. We then aggregate this five-factor operating environment index with the economic activity score to augment our main methodology with socio-political risk.
In Chapter 3, we calculate a retail ranking score, where we take into consideration GDP per capita, population size and growth, average annual growth forecast (2019-2024), forecasted average annual urbanisation growth (2020-2025), domestic competition and household final consumption.
We recognize that not all these variables carry the same level of importance for retail companies when they are considering investing in various African markets. Therefore, we give a 25% weighting to domestic competition and household final consumption each and give an equal 10% weight to the remaining macroeconomic variables.
We first rank all countries across each of the seven variables. We then aggregate these individual rankings to arrive at a score. Using these aggregate scores, we rank the 38 countries for which we have data.
RMB Global Markets Research provides high quality, objective research in the fixed income, currency and credit markets. Original research produced ranges from original trade ideas and sub-Saharan Africa macroeconomic insights, to in-depth financial market knowledge.
The World Economic Forum’s annual Global Competitiveness Report provides cross-country rankings on over 100 economic, regulatory and political issues. It also showcases survey results relating to the most problematic business-environment factors.
https://www.weforum.org/reports/the-global-competitveness-report-2018
The World Bank’s Doing Business Report makes available details relating to the costs, time and procedures to follow as regards various aspects of doing business. These include starting a business, dealing with construction permits, registering property, getting credit, protecting investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts and closing a business.
https://www.doingbusiness.org/
The Heritage Foundation’s Index of Economic Freedom scores nations on ten broad factors of economic freedom. It provides a two-page discussion on the operating environment for each country.
https://www.heritage.org/index/
Transparency International’s Corruption Perceptions Index ranks nearly 200 countries according to perceived levels of corruption, as determined by expert assessments and opinion surveys.
https://www.transparency.org/research/cpi/overview
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) 2019 Sub-Saharan Africa Regional Economic Outlook called the Recovery Amid Elevated Uncertainty focuses on how Africa needs to build the fiscal space and enhance resilience to shocks by stepping up actions to mobilize revenues, alongside policies to boost productivity and private investment.
https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/REO/SSA/Issues/2019/04/01/sreo0419
EY’s Africa Attractiveness report focuses on insights derived from understanding growth from a foreign direct investment (FDI) perspective in African economies, including the sources of FDI investment, as well as the sectors that benefit the most.
https://www.ey.com/za/en/issues/business-environment/ey-attractiveness-program-africa-2018
The United Nation’s (UN) World Investment Report covers the latest trends in foreign direct investment around the World and analyses in depth one selected topic related to foreign direct investment and development.
https://unctad.org/en/pages/PublicationWebflyer.aspx?publicationid=2130
The African Development Banks’s (AfDB) African Economic Outlook is an annual reference book-journal which focuses on the economics of most African countries. It reviews the recent economic situation and predicts the short-term interrelated economic, social, and political evolution of all African economies.
https://www.afdb.org/en/knowledge/publications/african-economic-outlook
The IMF publishes a range of time series data on IMF lending, exchange rates and other economic and financial indicators. Manuals, guides, and other material on statistical practices at the IMF, in member countries, and of the statistical community at large are also available.
Freedom House’s Freedom in the World is an annual global report on political rights and civil liberties, composed of numerical ratings and descriptive texts for each country and a select group of territories. The 2019 edition covers developments in 195 countries and 14 territories from January 2018, through December 2018.
https://freedomhouse.org/report/freedom-world/freedom-world-2019
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) is the research and analysis division of The Economist Group, and helps businesses, financial firms and governments understand how the world is changing and how that creates opportunities to be seized and risks to be managed.
The primary World Bank collection of development indicators is compiled from officially-recognized international sources. It presents the most current and accurate global development data available, and includes national, regional and global estimates.
Various indices and data from Bloomberg.
The International Council on Mining and Metals’ Mining Contribution Index (MCI) looks at four major aspects to assess the mining sector’s contribution to national economies, including Mineral and metal export contribution, the increase/decrease in mineral and metal export contribution, mineral production value expressed as a percentage of GDP, and mineral rents as a percentage of GDP.
Fitch Solution’s Mining Risk/Reward Index (RRI) assesses potential returns on investment, both in terms of industry size and forecast growth and broader country characteristics like the regulatory environment.
https://www.fitchsolutions.com
In Fraser Institute’s Annual Survey of Mining Companies, the Policy Perception Index (PPI) measures the overall policy attractiveness of the mining industries in selected countries worldwide.
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/annual-survey-of-mining-companies-2018
EY provides summaries of the tax regimes in 166 countries.
https://www.ey.com/gl/en/services/tax/worldwide-corporate-tax-guide---country-list
BP Energy Economics’ BP Energy Outlook 2019 - Insights from the Evolving transition scenario – Africa looks at the key investments driving energy consumption and production on the continent.
https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-economics/energy-outlook.html
Fitch Solutions’ report on Sub-Saharan Africa Oil and Gas Review outlines major investment into the oil sector across the continent.
https://www.fitchsolutions.com
PwC’s survey on Oil and gas trends 2019. CEO Survey trend series analyses the major trends impacting Oil and gas in Africa and in the world
US Energy Information Administration provides independent statistics and analysis on the global energy sector.
Mbendi, a website that examine and cover the latest economic growth and development in Africa, looks at the state and future of African refineries.
https://mbendi.co.za/indy/oilg/ogrf/af/p0005.htm
Forming part of the Food Security Portal, the Regional Strategic Analysis and Knowledge Support System (ReSAKSS) is an Africa-wide network launched to provide readily available analysis, data, and tools of the highest quality to promote evidence-based decision-making, fill knowledge gaps, improve awareness of the role of agriculture for development in Africa, promote dialogue, and facilitate the benchmarking and review processes.
http://www.foodsecurityportal.org/
Emergency Events Database (EM-DAT) provides an objective basis for vulnerability assessment and rational decision-making in disaster situations.
AfricaFertilizer.org encourages and coordinates partnerships and data-sharing mechanisms that provide information in two main areas: 1) Fertilizer statistics, such as production, trade, consumption, prices, production capacities and fertilizer use per crop. 2) Fertilizer market intelligence, including fertilizer policies and regulations, subsidy programmes, business and product directories, publications and news.
Alliance for a Green Revolution in Africa’s report on Africa Agriculture Status Report: Catalyzing Government Capacity to Drive Agricultural provides information on government intervention into the agricultural sector.
https://agra.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/10/AASR-2018.pdf
An Africa Report article called Ghana, Côte d’Ivoire may struggle to make new cocoa price floor stick highlights the intentions of the new cocoa price floor and its impact on cocoa sector.
Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations’ (FAO) report, Current market situation and medium-term outlook breaks down tea production and output globally over the next few years.
http://www.fao.org/3/BU642en/bu642en.pdf
Fitch Solutions’ report on Sub-Saharan Africa’s Fertiliser Outlook: Improving Nitrogen-Based Production Outlook provides insight into use of fertilizers in Africa.
https://www.fitchsolutions.com
The United States Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Ethiopia - Coffee Annual Report focusses on the production of coffee from the Ethiopian market and the future of the commodity in global markets.
https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/ethiopia-coffee-annual-4
The International Cocoa Organization (ICCO) is a global organization, composed of both cocoa-producing and cocoa-consuming member countries.
https://www.icco.org/about-us.html
The Uganda Coffee Development Authority’s report, Uganda National Coffee Strategy 2040, looks at the strategies deployed in Uganda to ensure it remains a global contender in terms of coffee production
Deloittes’s Global Powers of Retailing 2018: Transformative change, reinvigorated commerce looks at the latest retail trends and the future of retailing through the lens of young consumers.
https://www2.deloitte.com/za/en/pages/consumer-business/articles/global-powers-of-retailing1.html
Brookings Institute’s report called Africa’s consumer market potential: Trends, drivers, opportunities, and strategies offers business leaders an overview of Africa’s biggest opportunities in the consumer market sector, discussing trends and perspectives from now to 2030.
https://www.brookings.edu/research/africas-consumer-market-potential/
The World Bank’s Global Consumption Database is an interactive tool that gives detailed tables, charts and technical notes on the consumer markets globally, including data by product/service and categories of products/services for each country.
http://datatopics.worldbank.org/consumption/sector/Food-and-Beverages
Canback Dangel provides a useful online tool for estimating the size of income groups per country. This can be valuable in estimating the present and forecast market size.
Knight Frank’s Africa Report 2017/18 highlights the rapidly growing economies of Africa and how they are catching the attention of increased numbers of property investors and corporate occupiers.
https://www.knightfrank.com/publications/africa-report-201718-4576.aspx
AT Kearney’s, a leading global management consulting firm, analyses the development in selected retail sectors globally in its Global Retail Development Index.
https://www.atkearney.com/global-retail-development-index
Nielsen, a global measurement and data analytics company that provides views on consumers and markets worldwide provides information on Africa’s retail market in its latest Nielsen Africa Prospects Indicator rankings.
https://www.nielsen.com/ssa/en/insights/report/2018/africa-prospects-edition-7/
Bearing-Point Institute, who delivers management and technology consulting, looks at how some Africa countries can provide inspiration for western retailer in a report called Sub-Saharan Africa shows Western retailers how to leapfrog to the future of retail by leveraging a sense of community.
The International Finance Corporation’s report on Digital Access: the future of financial inclusion in Africa, brings to the fore the insights of Africa’s consumers, as well as those of financial services industry leaders.
The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD) publication, Financing Africa: Through the Crisis and Beyond, is a call to arms for a new approach to Africa’s financial sector development. The publication creates an opportunity for Africa’s policy makers, private sector, civil society, and development partners to harness the progress of the past as a way to address the challenges of the future and enable the financial sector to play its rightful role in Africa’s transformation
The Absa Africa Financial Markets Index, produced by the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, assesses progress and potential across six key areas: market depth; access to foreign exchange; market transparency, tax and regulatory environment; macroeconomic opportunity; and the legality and enforceability of standard financial markets master agreements.
https://www.omfif.org/omfif-reports/absa-africa-financial-markets-index-2018/
The Global Impact Investing Network (GIIN) report on: The landscape for impact investing in Southern Africa, observes changes in impact investment across 12 countries in Southern Africa.
https://thegiin.org/assets/documents/pub/Southern%20Africa/GIIN_SouthernAfrica.pdf
The Bertha Centre for Social Innovation and Entrepreneurship paper on Innovative Finance in Africa is a showcase of the outstanding models and practices that make up the innovating finance ecosystem across Africa.
https://www.gsb.uct.ac.za/Downloads/InnovativeFinanceAfrica_1.pdf
The Internet World Stats provides statistics on internet usage of various countries and regions globally.
https://www.internetworldstats.com/stats1.htm
The Alliance For Affordable Internet provides data and statistics on the cost of data in Africa.
KPMG’s report Journey To The Cloud is a survey that outlines businesses capability, motivation and readiness to adopt cloud computing as an integral part of their business.
https://assets.kpmg/content/dam/kpmg/xx/pdf/2017/02/the-creative-cios-agenda-journey-to-cloud.PDF
Xalam Analytics’ The Rise of the African Cloud is a comprehensive analysis on available on African private and public cloud services markets. Including analysis of enterprise demand and industry-level use cases; market sizing and forecasting; competitive analysis; African cloud investment case; and much, much more.
The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) provides statistics for 200 economies and over 100 indicators. The ststistics cover categories such as broadband, Internet use, mobile-cellular and mobile-broadband networks.
The United Nations Industrial Development Organization’s 2018 report on Demand for Manufacturing focuses on driving inclusive and sustainable industrial development.
The European Statistical Office (Eurostat) provides statistical information to the institutions of the European Union (EU). In an article called Africa-EU: International trade in goods statistics, Eurostat provides a picture of international trade in goods between the EU and Africa.
The International Labour Organization (ILO) is a United Nations agency whose mandate is to advance social justice and promote decent work by setting international labour standards. It also provides statistics on the international labour markets.
https://www.ilo.org/global/statistics-and-databases/lang--en/index.htm
The AfDB’s report, Industrialize Africa, discusses the importance of industrialization in Africa and the role it plays in economic development.
Brookings Institution’s report called Foresight Africa: Top priorities for the continent in 2019, analysis the top challenges that Africa face and what needs to be prioritised in order to realize its growth potential.
https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2019/01/BLS18234_BRO_book_007_WEB.pdf
The United Nations Development Programme provides information on Special Economic Zones in Africa and China.
https://www.undp.org/content/undp/en/home.html
The Oxford Business Group, a global research and advisory company, focusses on the automotive industry in Egypt in an article called Can Egypt become an automotive manufacturing hub?
https://oxfordbusinessgroup.com/news/can-egypt-become-automotive-manufacturing-hub
The Knight Frank Africa Report 2017/18 provides an overview of the continent’s diverse property markets. Commentary is provided for 30 countries across Africa, along with guides to prime rents and yields in the office, retail, industrial and residential sectors.
https://content.knightfrank.com/research/155/documents/en/africa-report-201718-4576.pdf
Deloitte’s Africa Construction Trends 2018 highlights construction projects in Africa split by value and number of projects. This report covers 482 projects valued at US$50m or above, that had broken ground by 1 June 2018.
Fitch Solutions’ research note on the construction sector in Africa highlights the construction developments and dynamics in various African regions and countries.
https://www.fitchsolutions.com
The Global Property Guide provides regional trends and statistics on gross rental yields in various regions across the globe.
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